By cryptoadmin Reza Bundy, chief executive of Atlas Capital and business partner of longtime bitcoin critic Nouriel Roubini, expects bitcoin to fall as much as 70% over the next six months before eventually climbing as high as $500,000 in the years ahead.
Speaking to CoinDesk at the Proof of Talk conference in Paris, Reza Bundy, CEO of investment advisory firm Atlas Capital, issued his grim macroeconomic warning that runs contrary to typical industry optimism.
“We think there's going to be a massive drawdown in bitcoin in the next six months,” Bundy said, echoing Roubini's long-held thesis. “It [drawdown] could be up to 70%. We think $26,000 to $30,000 was the number we came up with. If there's a drawdown in the stock market that's even half of what happened in 2008, Bitcoin will double that debt loss.”
Bitcoin was trading around $63,000, down nearly 28% this year, while the equity markets have rallied sharply on the back of AI hype and momentum chasing. The S&P 500 rose 10%, and the Nasdaq climbed about 19%, outpacing bitcoin over the same period.
'Dr. Doom'
Bundy said that his bearish forecast is built directly on data and analysis developed alongside his Chief Economist, and Co-founder, Dr. Nouriel Roubini, known as "Dr. Doom" for accurately predicting the 2008 subprime mortgage crisis.
Roubini is also an anti-bitcoin advocate whose skepticism of bitcoin stretches back to the historic 2017 bull run. While bitcoin rose roughly 850% from its level when Roubini first called it a bubble, Dr. Doom has maintained his bearish stance on the digital asset.
In recent market assessments published on Bloomberg, Roubini reiterated his conviction that bitcoin is a "pseudo-asset class" and a pure "speculative asset" that lacks fundamental value or real-world utility, making it distinct from real economic hedges like gold.
Bundy has somewhat echoed that doom-and-gloom prediction for bitcoin, at least in the short term. He claimed that bitcoin has failed as an inflation hedge, as many bulls have said, and is now just a highly volatile risk asset moving in lockstep with tech stocks.
While bitcoin advocates are likely to dispute that characterization, pointing to the asset's long-term returns and fixed supply, Bundy's criticism echoes comments made by billionaire investor Mark Cuban, who recently said he sold most of his bitcoin after it had failed to behave like a hedge during periods of geopolitical stress and dollar weakness.
Bitcoin's original promise
On the flip side, Bundy isn't a perma-bear on bitcoin.
He still believes in bitcoin's 'store of value' thesis and is bullish in the long term. Bundy's longer-term prediction is a price range of $150,000 to $500,000, which puts him at odds with his Atlas partner, Roubini.
His optimism dates back to bitcoin's original promise as an alternative currency that counters global political and monetary chaos. Bundy argued that bitcoin's long-term growth will be driven by rising government debt, central bank arbitrary money printing and dropping trust in traditional currencies (as Satoshi Nakamoto originally envisioned).
And Bundy has reasons for his bullishness. He mapped out bitcoin's longer-term price using four economic paths:
- First, under "Controlled Expansion" (40% chance), the world sees steady growth and stable inflation. This keeps markets moving up and pushes bitcoin to a range of $150,000 to $250,000.
- Second, if "Fiscal Dominance" prevails (25% chance), governments will print money to cover their massive debts, leading to high inflation. This environment favors scarce assets, driving bitcoin between $250,000 and $500,000.
- Third, a "Global Conflict" path (20% chance) involves major security shocks in places like Taiwan or the Middle East. This would trigger a quick market panic and initial price drops, but would ultimately prove bitcoin's value as a safe, neutral asset.
- Fourth, a "Deflationary Recession" (15% chance) means a harsh credit freeze that leaves bitcoin weak until central banks step in to pump liquidity back into the system.
'Techno-dollar' shift
In the short term, though, Bundy continues to see a global financial crisis on the horizon. He warns that the traditional stock market is a bubble waiting to pop like 1929, and this thesis also informs Atlas Capital's investment strategy, called the "techno-dollar," Bundy said.
Instead of pegging digital tokens to a single depreciating government currency, he claimed that the strategy uses AI-driven allocation models to shift exposure among assets, including gold, food, real estate and defense technology. Atlas currently runs this asset allocation strategy through a traditional ETF vehicle with ticker "USAF" on the Nasdaq. The fund currently has about $18 million in net assets, and returned 8.7% since inception, according to TradingView data. Bundy also plans to tokenize it on public blockchains later this month.
When asked why bitcoin isn't part of the fund, even though he is bullish on the long term, Bundy said he is waiting for the short-term market crash he predicted to pass first.
"We believe there will be a major stock market correction, and we don't want to be part of the bitcoin drawdown. Once the correction happens, we will make our final decision to include or not."