Cryptocurrency analysis firm QCP Capital evaluated the recent movements in the Bitcoin market and reported that October was recorded as the “first red October since 2018.”
The company stated that Bitcoin fell from $110,000 to $106,000 as early investors took profits, but the price still managed to hold above $100,000.
Despite selling pressure of approximately 405,000 BTC in October, Bitcoin hasn't broken below $100,000, according to QCP Capital data. This resilience could signal either the quiet start of a new rally or early signs of an impending “crypto winter,” according to the firm's assessment.
Bitcoin, which had a weak start to November, continued its recent downtrend, falling from $110,000 to $106,000. On-chain data reveals that long-held Bitcoin has been moving to the Kraken exchange, a continuation of the sell-off that continued throughout October. QCP Capital noted that these movements are generally driven by profit-taking by early investors.
According to QCP's analysis, there is no clear macroeconomic catalyst behind the recent sell-off. On the contrary, while traditional markets and risk assets continue to rise thanks to accommodative monetary policies, the consolidation in the crypto market is notable.
Volatility has risen slightly in the past week, while the options market remains biased towards puts. However, futures open interest is low and funding rates are stable, suggesting there's no major market panic.
Despite the slowdown in buying by institutional investors, Bitcoin's spot price remains at strong support levels. QCP Capital noted that even last week's ETF outflows failed to break the current price band.
The company included the following assessment at the end of its report:
Bitcoin has been consolidating within a range similar to the pre-2024 period in recent months. Whether we are nearing the end of this cycle or the quiet beginning of a new bull run remains unclear. Currently, long-term investors are realizing their profits, while institutional inflows and adoption rates continue to strengthen the market's fundamentals.
*This is not investment advice.
