By cryptoadmin Bitcoin $BTC$64,109.53 traders are betting billions that the cryptocurrency's spot price will climb to $72,000 by the month’s end, a timeline that lines up with the July Federal Reserve meeting.
They have done so this week with the help of Deribit-listed bitcoin call options, or derivative contracts that pay off when $BTC's spot price surges beyond specific price levels by a certain date.
According to Deribit, a total of 20,000 contracts of the $70,000 call expiring July 31 were purchased alongside a sale of 20,000 contracts of the $72,000 call of the same expiry. That amounts to $2.5 billion in notional value, the dollar value of 40,000 contracts, each representing 1 bitcoin.
This is known as a bull call spread, a strategy initiated when expecting a moderate rise in the price of the underlying asset.
Think of it as buying a ticket that pays out if bitcoin rises to $70,000, while selling away the gains above $72,000 to lower the cost of that ticket. The trade-off: a lower entry cost and lower maximum loss if the market stays flat or falls, but at the cost of giving up any gains beyond $72,000.
"This week we have seen some large blocks in $BTC topside call spreads," Jean-David Péquignot, chief commercial officer at Deribit, told CoinDesk.
Options flow of this size and repetition often reflects institutional positioning rather than retail activity, given the capital required and the precision of the strike selection.
The timing is notable for two reasons. First, it suggests confidence in bitcoin's recent bounce to $64,000 from under $58,000 earlier this month. More importantly, the trade targets the July 31 settlement, two days after the Federal Reserve's July 29 interest rate decision. The call spread flow suggests that at least some large traders expect the meeting to serve as a catalyst for a move toward $72,000.
Fed funds futures currently point to a hold at the July meeting, with most trackers putting the probability of the central bank keeping its benchmark rate unchanged at 3.5%-3.75% in the 75%-80% range. The remaining odds are split between a rate hike and, to a lesser extent, a cut.
Rate-hike fears have ebbed following June inflation data, which showed a sharp deceleration in price pressures at both the consumer and producer levels. Much of the relief traces to a sharp pullback in oil prices during the month, tied to a ceasefire between the U.S. and Iran; core inflation, which strips out food and energy, was flat.