Is the “Uptober” True? Is an Altcoin Bull Run on the Horizon? An Analysis Firm Weighs In

Cryptocurrency analysis platform Santiment evaluated recent data on the Bitcoin and altcoin market, pointing to noteworthy signals in terms of investor interest, whale movements, and market sentiment. According to Santiment, while Bitcoin rose by approximately 2.1% in the last week, some altcoins saw much stronger movements. The upward momentum was particularly noticeable in AI, real-world assets, and some altcoins with large market capitalization.

According to Santiment data, despite Bitcoin’s price strengthening, its visibility on social media has seen a significant decline. Conversations about Bitcoin on X, Reddit, Telegram, and other social platforms have decreased by approximately 33% compared to the previous week. The platform found the low level of social interest noteworthy, even as Bitcoin approaches its local peak of around $87,300 recorded last week. Ethereum also saw a similar drop in social volume, approximately 33%.

The analysis also touched upon traditional “Uptober” expectations for October. Santiment noted that Bitcoin completed September with a bullish monthly candle, recording its strongest quarterly performance since 2017. However, the platform cautioned that October being a historically strong period alone might not be enough for a bull run. According to Santiment, independent catalysts such as ETF demand, regulatory developments, interest rate policy, and mass adoption could be more decisive in terms of price movements.

On-chain data for Bitcoin showed that large investors continued to buy. According to Santiment, wallets holding between 10 and 10,000 $BTC have accumulated a total of 44,669 $BTC since September 18th. However, the fact that small investor wallets also bought during the same period was considered a development that the platform should approach cautiously. Santiment noted that in the past, strong price increases have generally progressed more smoothly when small investors were selling and large investors, described as whales and sharks, were accumulating.

However, the fact that the number of active addresses on the Bitcoin network and network growth are not keeping pace with the price increase is one of the risks highlighted by Santiment. The platform noted that Bitcoin’s 30-day and 365-day MVRV rates are around 4.5 percent, indicating that investors are, on average, slightly in profit. It also stated that there is no unusual pattern in funding rates that would point to excessively long or short positions.

On the other hand, it was noteworthy that on October 1st, the ratio of profitable to losing transactions on the Bitcoin network exceeded 4 to 1. Santiment noted that this was one of the strongest profit-taking days of the year and that such levels have occasionally been associated with local peaks in the past. The renewed movement of older Bitcoins also indicated increased activity in large, long-inactive wallets.

One of the altcoins highlighted by Santiment was Quant ($QNT). $QNT surged approximately 366% between September 20th and 30th, before subsequently pulling back by about 17%. However, despite this sharp rise, the limited social sentiment and FOMO (Fear of Missing Out) were noteworthy. Santiment assessed that the low investor enthusiasm could leave room for a new rebound in $QNT.

On the Quant side, on-chain data also revealed a rather dynamic picture. Santiment reported one of the strongest jumps in network growth to date, with the 30-day MVRV reaching 1,022% at one point and a high number of whale transactions. However, the fact that approximately 6.9% of the $QNT supply has been withdrawn from exchanges since September 21st partially mitigated concerns about intense selling pressure.

Solana ($SOL) was another asset that stood out in Santiment’s assessment. While the $SOL price has risen by approximately 61% since August 17th, social sentiment has only increased to a limited extent. According to Santiment, the absence of excessive FOMO or intense fear in Solana indicates that the current price movement is far from extremes stemming from social sentiment.

*This is not investment advice.