By cryptoadmin Bitcoin has rallied 45% to $87K from July’s low of $57.8K. Despite briefly slipping back to $84K this week, Fidelity believes there was a higher chance of hitting $100K.
Notably, the asset manager accurately called the $60K bottom and the end of Bitcoin winter. Now, Fidelity’s Head of Global Macro Jurrien Timmer is back with an even bolder projection: $BTC can hit as high as $300K this cycle. But first, this overhead obstacle must be cleared.
Bitcoin’s path to $100K-$300K
According to Timmer, $BTC was close to forming a double bottom pattern (the W-formation) on the weekly charts. Timmer said that if the pattern is completed (by $BTC closing above $82K), the path to $100K would be clear.
Bitcoin is looking particularly interesting here as it challenges key resistance at $80k. If it breaks it will confirm a double bottom targeting $100k.
The double bottom patterns are bullish reversal formations, and their breakout rallies tend to coincide with the depth of the W-trough. In this case, it would translate to 24% upside potential above $82K, translating to the $102K price target.
So, Fidelity’s mid-term $100K outlook was spot on, purely based on price technical analysis.
Interestingly, the $82K was a crucial on-chain level. It doubled as the average cost basis of U.S. Spot $BTC ETFs.
For their part, Bitfinex analysts expected the level to be defended, noting that,
The same line capped the May rally before price fell to $58.5k. Now those buyers are in profit, and a cohort in profit defends its cost, turning the ceiling into support.
A weekly candlestick close above $82k could confirm the double bottom pattern and if the average $BTC ETF cost basis will be the next support zone for the next leg of the rally.
Otherwise, losing the support would open up a possible downside scenario to $70K.
Separately, Timmer projected the bullish target for Bitcoin in this bull run would be $300K, citing the Bitcoin Power Law model. This was a slightly conservative scenario compared to the aggressive bullish target of +$400K projected by the CryptoQuant CEO.
Still, the asset has to navigate short-term macro pressure, including a potential 0.25% Fed rate hike in October.
Amid this likely macro-driven pressure on risk appetite, there was a possibility of a low sell-off from $BTC miners, according to Bitfinex analysts.
Mining difficulty is still below late-June levels, so competition to mine it stays low. Miners now earn around 25% more per unit of computing power, which means less need to sell $BTC to pay bills, easing sell pressure.
Overall, Bitcoin bulls will need to defend the $82K despite macro headwinds to make the $100K target a reality.
Final Summary
- Fidelity said clearing the $82K obstacle would make $100K the next $BTC bullish target
- Bitfinex expected a low miner dump, citing current 25% extra profits per compute unit