The crypto market is entering a decisive phase as the ETH/BTC pair drops to the key support zone of 0.032–0.034, sparking intense debate among analysts about when the long-awaited Altseason will truly begin.
While some argue that Bitcoin must break new all-time highs to ignite a broad altcoin rally, others believe that Ethereum could independently trigger the next bullish cycle—even without BTC leading the charge.
Bitcoin – The Gatekeeper of the Altseason Signal?
According to Benjamin Cowen, the current stage is merely the “prologue” of the broader market expansion. He argues that two key conditions must align for Altseason to occur: Ethereum (ETH) needs to break above $5,000 and sustain that level as support.
This, in turn, implies that Bitcoin (BTC) must also reach a new all-time high. As BTC climbs to fresh highs, BTC Dominance (BTC.D) typically rises—mirroring the pattern seen in every previous market cycle.
“So the only way to get an ‘ALT Season’ is for BTC.D to first go up as BTC goes to new highs,” Cowen concluded.
Adding nuance, analyst AG noted that the BTC Dominance peak doesn’t necessarily coincide with Bitcoin’s price top. Historically, BTC.D tends to fall about 30% from its peak once BTC hits its ATH, and a similar pattern might be unfolding now—suggesting the June 2025 high around 65% BTC.D could already mark the cycle top.
BeInCrypto reported that the BTC.D has risen nearly 59%, while the Altcoin Season Index has dropped below 75. This signals that altcoins are underperforming and raises concerns about a delayed altcoin season. Some analysts have even argued that the current “altcoin season” is not in cryptocurrency tokens but in publicly traded cryptocurrency stocks.
Cowen maintains that Altseason has not yet arrived, as ETH was rejected on its first attempt at reclaiming previous highs. ALT/BTC pairs have declined, while ETH/BTC may be forming a higher low. The next major move for altcoins will depend heavily on how ETH reacts near the $5,000 level.
However, not everyone agrees that BTC must lead the charge. Analyst CryptoBullet challenges Cowen’s thesis, citing historical data showing ETH rallied +88% in December 2017 and +79% in April 2021 shortly after BTC topped out—proving Ethereum can drive market momentum without relying on further Bitcoin growth.
ETH price cycles in 2017 and 2021. Source: CryptoBullet
ETH/BTC at Critical Support
Echoing Cowen’s cautious stance, analyst Ted emphasized that the market hasn’t officially entered Altseason yet. Historical data shows that altcoin market capitalization (excluding stablecoins) remains 20% below its all-time high, indicating that BTC and ETH must show stronger momentum before altcoins can follow.
Altcoin market cap. Source: Ted
Ted also pointed out several bullish signs. The ETH/BTC pair is now testing the 0.032–0.034 support zone, a historically significant level that has triggered powerful rebounds in previous cycles.
ETH/BTC chart. Source: Ted
Another notable macro factor is the signal from the US Federal Reserve. The Fed’s hint at potentially ending its Quantitative Tightening (QT) program could inject optimism into risk assets, particularly altcoins, which benefit from improved liquidity conditions.
Meanwhile, analyst FANG is taking a more bullish stance. He notes that this marks the first ETH/BTC uptrend in four years and insists that “one does not simply fade” such a setup. He believes that $5,000+ ETH is only a matter of time.
The debate over the timing of the next Altseason signal continues to divide analysts. Yet despite differing views, most agree that ETH/BTC is hovering around a make-or-break zone that could define the direction of the entire crypto market in the months ahead.
