By cryptoadmin Fed Chair Jerome Powell will speak at an event in memory of George Shultz at Stanford University tonight.
However, due to a pre-meeting communication ban, Powell is not expected to make any statements on economic or monetary policy. This means there will be no further official comment before the Fed's interest rate decision is due next Wednesday.
In this environment, markets are almost certain of a rate cut at the December meeting. The probability of a 25 basis point cut has reached approximately 90% in futures markets and bond pricing. If this expectation materializes, investors will focus on the Fed's updated economic projections, particularly the interest rate path projections known as “dot plots.” This chart will provide critical signals regarding the interest rate outlook for 2026.
Pricing on the prediction market Polymarket clearly reflects this strong expectation. Despite volumes reaching hundreds of millions of dollars, the probabilities of the outcome are quite clear. According to Polymarket data, the probability of a 25 basis point cut is overwhelming at 89 percent, while the probability of interest rates remaining stable is priced in at only 11 percent. A more aggressive 50 basis point cut has a probability of only 1 percent. Conversely, the fact that the probability of an interest rate hike has fallen below 1 percent suggests that this scenario is completely improbable in the market.
*This is not investment advice.