Cryptocurrency analyst Axel Adler has provided important data on the current market position of Bitcoin. Based on the metric “Bitcoin Distribution by Realized Supply,” Adler assessed how expensive or cheap Bitcoin’s current price level is relative to the average cost of investors.
According to Adler, “Realized Supply” represents the total dollar value of Bitcoins on the network, calculated based on the most recent price movement. The ratio between this metric and the Bitcoin price allows comparison of today’s price with the average cost paid by investors.
This value, defined as “Ratio = Bitcoin Price / Realized Supply,” is similar to the price/earnings (P/E) ratio in stock markets. “The higher the ratio, the more expensive Bitcoin is; the lower it is, the cheaper it can be considered,” Adler said.
According to Adler, the Bitcoin price is currently slightly above the annual average based on this ratio. This shows that the market is neither overbought nor oversold, i.e. in a neutral position. Adler recalled that a similar ratio was observed before the rise in November 2024, when Bitcoin rose from $ 74,000 to $ 107,000.
Adler, who touched upon another important indicator in his analysis, the “365-Day Bitcoin Price Change” metric, stated that this rate is currently around 30%. In other words, Adler stated that Bitcoin is currently increasing in value by around 30% on an annual basis, and that if a classic macro cycle is followed, this increase could reach levels of 60-70%, at which point investors will decide whether to make a profit or not.
“Once this threshold level is reached, investors will either choose to take profits or wait for the rise to continue,” Adler said, adding that a similar structure has continued since September 2023.
*This is not investment advice.
