The budget crisis in the USA remained unresolved and the US government officially shut down after 7 years.
As a result, the publication of key economic indicators such as employment and Gross Domestic Product (GDP) data will be suspended and hundreds of thousands of federal employees will be furloughed.
As uncertainty grows in the US due to the government shutdown, K33 Research said October, a bullish month following the Asian holiday season and the US government shutdown, started on uncertain ground.
K33 Research stated in its report today that important developments have come one after another, with the start of the Chinese National Day Golden Week holiday (which will last 1 week) and the partial government shutdown in Washington.
At this point, the analysis firm said that developments originating in Asia and the US could reduce cryptocurrency market liquidity and cause a delay in important economic data in early October.
According to analysts, low liquidity increases the risk of abnormal price fluctuations in the Bitcoin (BTC) and cryptocurrency markets.
K33 analysts noted that the one-week holiday in Asia coinciding with the first week of October has historically caused a recession in Asia and negatively affected Bitcoin.
According to K33 data, Bitcoin generally performs flat or negatively during the first week of October, while K33 Head of Research Vetle Lunde said, “BTC generally performs flat during the Asian holiday season in early October.”
Lunde noted that Bitcoin remains volatile and that investors are taking a cautious approach to BTC. He noted that CME open interest has fallen to a five-month low, indicating that options traders are still favoring bearish positions.
Does Bitcoin Like October?
When we look at Bitcoin's performance over years and months, we notice that declines are concentrated in certain months and increases are concentrated in certain months.
When we look at the Bitcoin monthly return chart above, we see that March, August and September are generally the months of decline, while February, July, October and November are the months of rise.
When we look at BTC's October performance over the past 12 years, we see that it rose for 10 years and fell for 2 years.
Although this situation raises investors' expectations for October, when we look at the years that experienced declines, we see that these coincide with BTC bear markets.
Although historical data shows that October was a bullish month and BTC rose by 3% in the last 24 hours and recovered above $116,000, it seems difficult to say whether Bitcoin's rise will continue for now in an environment of uncertainty created by events such as the US government shutdown.
*This is not investment advice.
