This is a daily analysis by CoinDesk analyst and Chartered Market Technician Omkar Godbole.
We've probably all heard this phrase: "Once is an accident, twice is a coincidence, three times is a pattern."
The old saying is perfectly applicable to the bitcoin BTC$114,828.82 market, where the crash on Friday marked the third time bulls failed to maintain gains above the critical trendline drawn from the 2017 and 2021 highs, raising the possibility of a deeper drop to $100,000 or lower.
This repeated inability to hold above that level highlights a persistent resistance, suggesting that the trendline is now a key battleground likely defining the limits of the bullish strength in this cycle. CoinDesk highlighted the trendline resistance a month ago, noting that bulls had twice failed to maintain gains above it.
BTC's monthly chart in candlestick format. (TradingView)
The long wicks on the July, August, and October candles signal bull fatigue above the trendline.
At the same time, the MACD histogram on the monthly chart – although still positive – is lower than it was during the December-January rally when BTC first broke above $100,000, indicating a weakening of upward momentum. MACD, a moving average-based indicator, is widely used to identify trend changes and trend strength.
The daily chart below also paints a bearish picture.
BTC's daily chart. (TradingView)
The sharp reversal from the expanding channel resistance, combined with negative readings in both the standard (12, 26, 9) and longer-term (50, 100, 9) MACD histograms, signals that the path of least resistance is downward.
The longer duration histogram, which uses 50- and 100-day EMAs and a 9-day EMA to smooth the signal, is significantly slower and less sensitive than the default setting, but better suited for filtering out short-term market noise.
Taken together, the monthly and daily charts suggest scope for a drop to sub-$100K levels, marking a test of the lower end of the expanding triangle. On the way lower, the 200-day simple moving average at $107,000 could also offer support.
Bulls will need to engineer a break above $121,800 to invalidate the series of lower highs and overturn the bearish outlook. At press time, BTC changed hands at $114,800, according to CoinDesk data.
