Bonds Hint at Rebound: Crypto Daybook Americas

By Omkar Godbole (All times ET unless indicated otherwise)

Risk-off sentiment deepened in Asian trading as the price of bitcoin BTC$90,470.56 briefly fell below $90,000 for the first time in seven months before stabilizing near $91,000, a 4.5% drop over 24 hours.

While major alternative cryptocurrencies like XRP$2.1776, BNB BNB$913.73 and SOL SOL$137.16 also dropped, they outperformed the largest cryptocurrency. Most of the top 100 coins are in the red, except for a handful of exceptions like ASTER, HYPE, KYPE and ICP.

Some experts attribute BTC's double-digit monthly slide mainly to fading expectations of a December Federal Reserve interest-rate cut.

"The probability of a cut fell from roughly 70% to 42% in just about a week, amplified by the absence of other macro data points," market maker Wintermute said. "[Fed Chair Jerome] Powell walking back the almost certain December cut forced investors to examine individual FOMC member preferences, revealing the cut was far from consensus. The response was immediate: U.S. risk assets softened and crypto, the most sentiment-sensitive risk asset, got hit hardest."

But there's a silver lining. Data from ING shows that open interest in bullish U.S. Treasury bond options has increased recently, a sign traders are betting on higher prices and lower yields.

This stance suggests they are anticipating weaker U.S. economic data to revive hopes for faster Fed rate cuts. ING pointed out that with only 15 basis points priced in for a December cut, the room for front-end rates spillover into the dollar is significant. In other words, there is scope for renewed dollar weakness.

For bitcoin bulls battered this month, this outlook could signal a turning point. Declining yields and a softer dollar have historically offered fertile ground for a crypto rebound. The key question remains: When will this dovish repricing in Treasuries spill over to risk assets, helping bitcoin and the wider crypto market regain poise?

For now, the U.S. dollar index remains firm, poised to extend Monday's bounce from 99.00 and potentially retest the Aug. 1 swing high of 100.25, a level that acted as resistance earlier this month. Its approach and interaction with this key level will be crucial to watch. A clear breakout above 100.25 could increase pressure on risk assets. Stay alert!

Read more: For analysis of today's activity in altcoins and derivatives, see Crypto Markets Today

What to Watch

For a more comprehensive list of events this week, see CoinDesk's "Crypto Week Ahead".

• Crypto
  • Nov. 18: The Fidelity Solana Fund is expected to begin trading under the ticker FSOL on NYSE Arca and the Canary Marinade Solana ETF is set to launch on Nasdaq under the ticker SOLC, according to Form 8-A filings with the U.S. SEC.
  • Nov. 18, 7 a.m.: Astar Network (ASTR) community call ("Road to Evolution Phase 2"). Livestream on YouTube.
  • Nov. 18: FLock (FLOCK) 2025 earnings call. Livestream on X.
• Macro
  • Nov. 18, 8:15 a.m.: ADP Employment Change Weekly (Prev. -11.25K).
  • Nov. 18: 10:30 a.m.: Fed Governor Michael S. Barr speech on "Bank Supervision." Watch live.
• Earnings (Estimates based on FactSet data)
  • Nov. 18: KULR Technology (KULR), post-market, N/A.
  • Nov. 18: Solana Company (HSDT), post-market, N/A.

Token Events

For a more comprehensive list of events this week, see CoinDesk's "Crypto Week Ahead".

• Governance votes and calls
  • The Render (RENDER) community is voting on whether to expand its compute program to include enterprise-grade GPUs (like H100/H200). Voting closes on Nov. 18.
  • DYDX$0.2792 is hosting an analyst call on the latest developments in the project's governance and economics at 9 a.m.
  • ETHFI$0.8726 is hosting an analyst call to cover the roadmap and fundamentals at 10.30 a.m.
• Unlocks
  • None
• Token Launches
  • TON$1.7889 lists on Coinbase with TON/USD pair.
  • ZEN$15.66 lists on OKX with ZEN/USDS pair.
  • Datagram Network (DGRAM) lists on Bitget with DGRAM/USDT pair.

Conferences

For a more comprehensive list of events this week, see CoinDesk's "Crypto Week Ahead".

• Day 2 of 2: Banking Transformation Summit (Charlotte, North Carolina)
• Nov. 18: AFC Policy Summit 2025 (Washington)
• Nov. 18: Euro Stablecoin Forum (Frankfurt)
• Nov. 18: Lugano Finance Forum (Switzerland)
• Day 1 of 2: Digital Assets: Compliance, Enforcement & Regulatory Oversight (New York)

Market Movements

• BTC is down 0.48% from 4 p.m. ET Monday at $91,437.01 (24hrs: -4.32%)
• ETH is up 1.85% at $3,061.45 (24hrs: -4.18%)
• CoinDesk 20 is up 1.5% at 2,963.20 (24hrs: -3.93%)
• Ether CESR Composite Staking Rate is up 8 bps at 2.91%
• BTC funding rate is at 0.0084% (9.1761% annualized) on Binance

• DXY is unchanged at 99.60
• Gold futures are down 0.86% at $4,039.30
• Silver futures are down 0.96% at $50.22
• Nikkei 225 closed down 3.22% at 48,702.98
• Hang Seng closed down 1.72% at 25,930.03
• FTSE is down 1.05% at 9,573.79
• Euro Stoxx 50 is down 1.33% at 5,565.93
• DJIA closed on Monday down 1.18% at 46,590.24
• S&P 500 closed down 0.92% at 6,672.41
• Nasdaq Composite closed down 0.84% at 22,708.07
• S&P/TSX Composite closed down 0.83% at 30,076.21
• S&P 40 Latin America closed down 0.78% at 3,087.59
• U.S. 10-Year Treasury rate is down 2.3 bps at 4.11%
• E-mini S&P 500 futures are down 0.3% at 6,672.25
• E-mini Nasdaq-100 futures are down 0.32% at 24,798.75
• E-mini Dow Jones Industrial Average Index are down 0.32% at 46,514.00

Bitcoin Stats

• BTC Dominance: 58.96% (-0.8%)
• Ether-bitcoin ratio: 0.03351 (1.96%)
• Hashrate (seven-day moving average): 1,103 EH/s
• Hashprice (spot): $37.94
• Total fees: 4.48 BTC / $420,601
• CME Futures Open Interest: 136,705 BTC
• BTC priced in gold: 22.7 oz.
• BTC vs gold market cap: 6.13%

Technical Analysis

VIX's daily chart. (TradingView)

• The VIX index, which tracks 30-day implied volatility in the S&P 500, is breaking out of a prolonged range, suggesting it might be time to be a volatility bull on Wall Street.
• Rising volatility in equities could spill over into crypto, further amplifying the already elevated volatility environment.
• Still, it remains unclear whether the breakout will sustain or fizzle out, as it did last month.

Crypto Equities

• Coinbase Global (COIN): closed on Monday at $263.95 (-7.06%), -0.37% at $262.97 in pre-market
• Circle Internet (CRCL): closed at $76.59 (-6.47%), +0.25% at $76.78
• Galaxy Digital (GLXY): closed at $25.04 (-4.94%), -1.36% at $24.70
• Bullish (BLSH): closed at $36.75 (-4.5%), -0.14% at $36.70
• MARA Holdings (MARA): closed at $11.51 (-4%), -0.52% at $11.45
• Riot Platforms (RIOT): closed at $13.88 (-0.5%), -0.5% at $13.81
• Core Scientific (CORZ): closed at $14.79 (-0.94%)
• CleanSpark (CLSK): closed at $10.61 (-3.19%), -0.66% at $10.54
• CoinShares Valkyrie Bitcoin Miners ETF (WGMI): closed at $40.92 (+0.94%), unchanged in pre-market
• Exodus Movement (EXOD): closed at $17.3 (-4.68%)

Crypto Treasury Companies

• Strategy (MSTR): closed at $195.42 (-2.17%), -0.61% at $194.22
• Semler Scientific (SMLR): closed at $20.02 (-8.25%)
• SharpLink Gaming (SBET): closed at $10.29 (-5.51%), -0.29% at $10.26
• Upexi (UPXI): closed at $2.60 (-13.21%), -0.19% at $2.59
• Lite Strategy (LITS): closed at $1.90 (-5.94%)

ETF Flows

Spot BTC ETFs

• Daily net flows: -$254.6 million
• Cumulative net flows: $58.58 billion
• Total BTC holdings ~1.32 million

Spot ETH ETFs

• Daily net flows: -$182.7 million
• Cumulative net flows: $12.97 billion
• Total ETH holdings ~6.34 million

Source: Farside Investors

While You Were Sleeping

• El Salvador Buys 1,090 BTC as Prices Drop and IMF Pressure Mounts (CoinDesk): The country's total bitcoin reserves now approach 7,500 bitcoin, built through a policy of buying one per day despite IMF conditions discouraging additional public sector crypto holdings.
• Bitcoin Dominance Is Bleeding With Price, but Market Observers Say Altcoin Season Is on Hold (CoinDesk): Analysts and on-chain data suggest the market is flushing excess leverage, as steady cross-pair performance and subdued network activity show little appetite for speculative rotation.
• Mastercard Picks Polygon to Bring Verified Usernames to Self-Custody Wallets (CoinDesk): Mastercard Crypto Credential standardizes how blockchain addresses are verified by enabling human-readable aliases that correspond to a verified individual, according to the payments giant.