Cryptocurrency markets calmed after US Consumer Price Index (CPI) data for August came in line with expectations. This development strengthened the possibility of a 25 basis point interest rate cut in September.
US CPI Data In Line with Expectations: 25 Basis Point Cut Chance Strengthens
According to data from the US Department of Labor, headline inflation rose 2.9% year-over-year, in line with expectations. Core inflation held steady at 3.1%. Monthly headline CPI rose 0.4%, above July's 0.2% and slightly exceeding expectations of 0.3%. Core inflation rose 0.3% month-over-month, in line with forecasts.
Soft inflation data has increased expectations that the Fed may change policy. According to Polymarket data, the probability of a 25 basis point cut in September has risen to 88%, while CME FedWatch data showed that the likelihood of an aggressive 50 basis point cut has decreased. The Fed last cut interest rates by 25 basis points to a range of 4.25%-4.50% on December 18, 2024.
Meanwhile, strong inflows into spot crypto ETFs have been notable in recent days. Blockhead co-founder Timothy Misir noted net inflows of $757 million into spot Bitcoin ETFs and $172 million into Ethereum funds on September 10th. “Another soft inflation data release could accelerate current risk appetite,” Misir said.
On the technical side, the analyst notes that Bitcoin’s daily close above the $113,000–113,500 band could bring the $118,000 level into the spotlight, otherwise the $109,000–107,000 support zone could be retested.
Paul Howard, senior director at crypto market maker Wincent, said markets are pricing in three interest rate cuts by the first quarter of next year. “Our expectations for a rate cut have strengthened following the PPI and CPI data,” Howard said. “Analysts are predicting a total cut of 75 basis points by the first quarter of 2026. This could support the theory that cryptocurrencies are a hedge against inflation.”
*This is not investment advice.
