The recent sharp sell-off in the cryptocurrency market comes after weeks of strong capital flows into small-cap altcoins.
This activity has fueled debate in the market about whether altcoin season has arrived.
CoinGlass's Altcoin Seasonal Index evaluates altcoins' performance against Bitcoin on a scale of 0 to 100. This index, which rose to 59 on Monday, fell to 41 as of Friday.
Coinbase Head of Research David Duong noted in a report that the altcoin market, excluding stablecoins, has nearly doubled since April. However, this week's pullback was blamed on investors taking excessive risks in leveraged altcoin positions.
According to the report, the Altcoin Open Interest Dominance metric has risen to 1.6. This ratio represents the ratio of the dollar amount tied up in altcoin derivatives contracts to Bitcoin contracts and has been a precursor to market corrections in the past. Duong stated that a decrease in this ratio would signal a healthy deleveraging in the market, otherwise, further volatility could occur.
The Bitcoin Dominance metric is crucial for the sustainability of the altcoin season. This metric, which measures BTC's share of the total crypto market, has fallen below its 200-day moving average, marking the first time it's fallen below that level since January 2025.
“A sustained move below the 200-day moving average could confirm an altcoin season. Such situations have preceded weeks of altcoin dominance in the past (e.g., in 2021),” Duong said. However, he added that investors should wait for a few more closes below this level to take a more cautious position.
*This is not investment advice.
